Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Tigres UANL — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Tigres UANL Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-1
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 2-0
Tigres UANL
MEK
4-1
HT 3-1
Toluca
MEK
3-2
HT 2-0
Tigres UANL
MEK
3-1
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
3-0
HT 0-0
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 2-1 Tigres UANL — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca edged past Tigres UANL 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Toluca had 61% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 39%, shots finished 23-4, expected goals 2.75 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Toluca's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Toluca and 2.50 for Tigres UANL.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Tigres UANL?
Toluca 2-1 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Tigres UANL?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Toluca 45%, draw 30%, Tigres UANL 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.