Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction — Model Probabilities
Toluca v Tigres UANL — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Tigres UANL Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Toluca 2-1 Tigres UANL — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca edged past Tigres UANL 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
True to our pre-match read, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: both teams to score (55%) landed.
On the day, Toluca had 61% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 39%, shots finished 23-4, expected goals 2.75 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Toluca's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Toluca and 2.50 for Tigres UANL.
Toluca vs Tigres UANL Result & Final Score
Toluca 2 - 1 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Toluca 50%, draw 27%, Tigres UANL 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.