Porto 5-0 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Mar 2024

Porto
5-0 HT 2-0
Benfica
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Porto vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 30% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.27
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
17%
5.12
X/2
11%
6.1
X/X
12%
4.72
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
16%
4.18
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+1.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.5pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Porto v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 36%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
2.07/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.35
+16% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
17.6 Crosses 19.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 4.1

Porto vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Benfica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.00 xG 1.06
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
246 Passes 392
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 6
The Meetings
29.09.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
09.08.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto Portekiz - SUper Kupa
07.04.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
21.10.2022 Porto Porto 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
07.05.2022 Benfica Benfica 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
31.12.2021 Porto Porto 3-1 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR

Porto 5-0 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
5-0
AWAY Benfica
2.81 xG 0.46
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
537 Passes 274
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Porto vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto swept aside Benfica 5-0. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Porto found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Porto had 63% of the ball to Benfica's 37%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 2.81 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Porto and 1.00 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Porto vs Benfica?

Porto 5-0 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Porto 40%, draw 27%, Benfica 33%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
3 Mar 2024
18:30 Portimonense vs Vizela Analysis →
18:30 Casa Pia vs Gil Vicente Analysis →
21:00 Sporting CP vs Farense Analysis →