Sporting CP 3-2 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Mar 2024

Sporting CP
3-2 HT 2-1
Farense
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Sporting CP vs Farense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.18
Draw
18%
6.26
Away
12%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.74
Over 2.5
56%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.52
2-3 Goals
40%
2.13
4-5 Goals
27%
2.51
6+ Goals
13%
5.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1.28
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
32.5
X/1
19%
3.47
X/2
4%
34.0
X/X
8%
11.15
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
5%
25.5
2/X
4%
31.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
80%
-10.0pp
17%
Draw
13%
+4.4pp
12%
Away Win
7%
+5.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
33%
+11.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
67%
-11.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Farense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 9%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.34/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/3.26
+3% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +23%
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
516 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 76%
33.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
24.1 Crosses 13.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.3

Sporting CP vs Farense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Farense
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.22 xG 0.65
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
419 Passes 177
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
34 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 4-2 HT 2-0 Farense Farense PORLC
30.09.2023 Farense Farense 2-3 HT 1-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
30.11.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 6-0 HT 3-0 Farense Farense PORLC
16.04.2021 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
19.12.2020 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
17.02.2002 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-0 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR

Sporting CP 3-2 Farense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
3-2
AWAY Farense
2.11 xG 0.62
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 1
593 Passes 271
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 5
20 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP edged past Farense 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Sporting CP had 66% of the ball to Farense's 34%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.11 to 0.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting CP's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Sporting CP and 0.67 for Farense.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Farense?

Sporting CP 3-2 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 70%, draw 17%, Farense 12%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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