Perugia 2-1 Ascoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 3 Mar 2025

📅03/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
38%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
4.13
6+ Goals
8%
20.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
47%
-11.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
38%
Away Win
25%
+12.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.7pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perugia EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Ascoli EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.60/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.31
+24% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
375 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perugia
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Ascoli
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.24 xG 0.79
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
241 Passes 316
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
19.10.2024 Ascoli Ascoli 0-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
11.02.2023 Ascoli Ascoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Perugia Perugia İTB
10.09.2022 Perugia Perugia 1-0 HT 1-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
05.02.2022 Ascoli Ascoli 0-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTB
28.08.2021 Perugia Perugia 2-3 HT 1-1 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
30.09.2020 Ascoli Ascoli 1-4 HT 0-3 Perugia Perugia İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perugia
2-1
AWAY Ascoli
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Perugia vs Ascoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perugia squeezed past Ascoli 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Perugia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Perugia had 46% of the ball to Ascoli's 54%, shots finished 7-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perugia had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Perugia and 0.83 for Ascoli.

What was the final score of Perugia vs Ascoli?

Perugia 2-1 Ascoli in the Italy - Serie C on 03/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perugia vs Ascoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Perugia 35%, draw 27%, Ascoli 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ascoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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