Bayelsa United 1-0 Heartland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
15%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
51%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-7.4pp
29%
Draw
22%
+7.0pp
15%
Away Win
14%
+0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.6pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayelsa United EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Heartland EU Bookmakers 17%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.65
+25% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Bayelsa United vs Heartland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayelsa United squeezed past Heartland 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayelsa United as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Bayelsa United vs Heartland?

Bayelsa United 1-0 Heartland in the Nigeria NPFL on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayelsa United vs Heartland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayelsa United win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Bayelsa United 57%, draw 29%, Heartland 15%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayelsa United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayelsa United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
NIJ More Nigeria NPFL
3 Apr 2024
17:00 Akwa United vs Doma United Analysis →
18:00 Enugu Rangers vs Sunshine Stars Analysis →
18:00 Sporting Lagos vs Lobi Stars Analysis →
18:00 Enyimba vs Kano Pillars Analysis →
19:30 Shooting Stars vs Kwara United Analysis →