Tuzlaspor 1-1 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.82
6+ Goals
8%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 33% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.48
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
14%
5.21
X/2
12%
5.95
X/X
16%
4.27
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
13%
4.19
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.9pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tuzlaspor EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.28/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.28
-4% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 74%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
14.2 Crosses 17.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tuzlaspor
0W-3D-2L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.65 xG 1.05
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
320 Passes 371
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 21
9 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.11.2023 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-1 HT 1-1 Tuzlaspor T1L
01.04.2022 Tuzlaspor 1-1 HT 1-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
31.10.2021 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-1 HT 1-1 Tuzlaspor T1L
14.03.2021 Tuzlaspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
07.11.2020 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-1 HT 1-1 Tuzlaspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tuzlaspor
1-1
AWAY Ümraniyespor
2.51 xG 0.84
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
416 Passes 384
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
38 Box Touches 17
33 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tuzlaspor vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tuzlaspor and Ümraniyespor shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Tuzlaspor at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Tuzlaspor had 53% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 47%, shots finished 22-12, expected goals 2.51 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ümraniyespor led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Tuzlaspor and 1.20 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Tuzlaspor vs Ümraniyespor?

Tuzlaspor 1-1 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tuzlaspor vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tuzlaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tuzlaspor 41%, draw 28%, Ümraniyespor 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tuzlaspor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tuzlaspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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