PAOK 3-1 Lamia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 3 Apr 2024

PAOK
3-1 HT 1-1
Lamia
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.16
Draw
22%
7.13
Away
17%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.96
Over 2.5
55%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
82%
-21.4pp
22%
Draw
12%
+10.6pp
17%
Away Win
6%
+10.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
30%
+15.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
70%
-15.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Lamia EU Bookmakers 8%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.96/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.64
-3% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -5%
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
508 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 196 · 69%
32.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.2
21.6 Crosses 11.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Lamia
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.50 xG 0.35
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
513 Passes 204
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
35 Box Touches 8
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Lamia Lamia 0-2 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
04.12.2023 PAOK PAOK 3-0 HT 2-0 Lamia Lamia YUN
13.04.2023 PAOK PAOK 1-1 HT 1-0 Lamia Lamia YUK
08.03.2023 Lamia Lamia 1-5 HT 0-2 PAOK PAOK YUK
07.01.2023 Lamia Lamia 0-3 HT 0-2 PAOK PAOK YUN
12.09.2022 PAOK PAOK 1-0 HT 1-0 Lamia Lamia YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
3-1
AWAY Lamia
2.30 xG 0.66
75% Ball Possession 25%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 3
546 Passes 147
86% Pass Accuracy 67%
52 Box Touches 6
30 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PAOK vs Lamia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK saw off Lamia 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PAOK as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, PAOK had 75% of the ball to Lamia's 25%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 2.30 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for PAOK and 0.33 for Lamia.

What was the final score of PAOK vs Lamia?

PAOK 3-1 Lamia in the Greece - Super League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs Lamia?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split PAOK 61%, draw 22%, Lamia 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PAOK), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PAOK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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