Panathinaikos 2-1 AEK Atina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 3 Apr 2024

Panathinaikos
2-1 HT 2-1
AEK Atina
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Greece - Super League – 2023/2024

Panathinaikos vs AEK Atina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
16.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 28% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.82
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
15%
5.58
X/2
8%
5.57
X/X
12%
4.24
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
22%
3.81
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Panathinaikos v AEK Atina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 39%
+11% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
0.95/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.74
+22% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
14.4 Crosses 17.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.3

Panathinaikos vs AEK Atina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panathinaikos
1W-3D-2L
AWAY AEK Atina
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.81 xG 1.30
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
253 Passes 302
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.01.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-2 HT 1-1 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
25.09.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-2 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
30.04.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 0-0 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
19.03.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-0 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
08.01.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
11.09.2022 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-1 HT 2-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN

Panathinaikos 2-1 AEK Atina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panathinaikos
2-1
AWAY AEK Atina
1.07 xG 1.37
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 8
254 Passes 436
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 38
4 Crosses 35
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Panathinaikos vs AEK Atina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panathinaikos nicked a narrow win over AEK Atina 2-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Panathinaikos found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Panathinaikos had 39% of the ball to AEK Atina's 61%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.07 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Panathinaikos and 1.00 for AEK Atina.

What was the final score of Panathinaikos vs AEK Atina?

Panathinaikos 2-1 AEK Atina in the Greece - Super League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panathinaikos vs AEK Atina?

Before kick-off our model rated an AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Panathinaikos 36%, draw 27%, AEK Atina 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AEK Atina), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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