AEK Atina 2-2 Panathinaikos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.55
2-3 Goals
35%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.47
6+ Goals
8%
23.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.55 — our 37% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.97
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
11%
4.38
X/2
9%
6.71
X/X
19%
4.01
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
14%
5.39
2/X
8%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.6pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.1pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.2pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +35%
0.93/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.98
-25% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +48%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 75%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
20.9 Crosses 11.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Atina
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Panathinaikos
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.11 xG 0.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 Passes 260
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.09.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-2 HT 1-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
30.04.2023 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 0-0 HT 0-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
19.03.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-0 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
08.01.2023 AEK Atina AEK Atina 1-0 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
11.09.2022 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-1 HT 2-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
08.05.2022 AEK Atina AEK Atina 0-0 HT 0-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Atina
2-2
AWAY Panathinaikos
1.76 xG 0.90
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
380 Passes 243
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AEK Atina vs Panathinaikos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AEK Atina and Panathinaikos shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 32% / 28% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AEK Atina had 59% of the ball to Panathinaikos's 41%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.76 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AEK Atina had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AEK Atina and 0.50 for Panathinaikos.

What was the final score of AEK Atina vs Panathinaikos?

AEK Atina 2-2 Panathinaikos in the Greece - Super League on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Atina vs Panathinaikos?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AEK Atina 40%, draw 32%, Panathinaikos 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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