Sporting CP 2-0 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 3 Apr 2025

Sporting CP
2-0 HT 2-0
Rio Ave
📅03/04/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2024/2025

Sporting CP vs Rio Ave Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.16
Draw
20%
6.26
Away
19%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.33
No
52%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.27
2-3 Goals
43%
2.0
4-5 Goals
25%
2.64
6+ Goals
13%
6.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.27
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
33.0
X/1
16%
3.73
X/2
6%
35.0
X/X
7%
10.5
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.0
2/2
7%
34.0
2/X
6%
35.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
82%
-21.0pp
20%
Draw
13%
+7.5pp
19%
Away Win
6%
+13.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
39%
+9.4pp
52%
BTTS No
61%
-9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting CP v Rio Ave — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 8%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
4.48/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/3.05
+61% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +114% / -9%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
469 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –

Sporting CP vs Rio Ave Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Rio Ave
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.04 xG 0.68
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
446 Passes 312
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.01.2025 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-3 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
09.08.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-1 HT 2-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
25.02.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 3-3 HT 2-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
25.09.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 2-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
07.02.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
07.12.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP PRLK

Sporting CP 2-0 Rio Ave — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
2-0
AWAY Rio Ave
2.53 xG 0.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
458 Passes 275
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
42 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP got the better of Rio Ave 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting CP had 61% of the ball to Rio Ave's 39%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.53 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sporting CP and 0.67 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Rio Ave?

Sporting CP 2-0 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Cup on 03/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 60%, draw 20%, Rio Ave 19%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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