Rio Ave 0-3 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 Jan 2025

Rio Ave
0-3 HT 0-2
Sporting CP
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.91
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
56%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
3.86
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.01
6+ Goals
12%
9.63
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 23% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
12.95
1/2
8%
22.1
1/X
5%
21.65
X/1
7%
15.05
X/2
22%
3.76
X/X
10%
6.68
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
1.64
2/X
10%
18.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
14%
+5.5pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.7pp
56%
Away Win
67%
-11.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rio Ave v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 71%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
0.69/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/0.70
-9% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -11%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
249 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 79%
13.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.4
13.5 Crosses 22.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.69 xG 1.66
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
296 Passes 483
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.08.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-1 HT 2-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
25.02.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 3-3 HT 2-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
25.09.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 2-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
07.02.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
07.12.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP PRLK
13.08.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR

Rio Ave 0-3 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
0-3
AWAY Sporting CP
0.06 xG 4.10
46% Ball Possession 54%
2 Total Shots 29
0 Shots on Target 13
0 Corners 8
329 Passes 428
82% Pass Accuracy 91%
13 Box Touches 47
10 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP swept aside Rio Ave 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Rio Ave had 46% of the ball to Sporting CP's 54%, shots finished 2-29, expected goals 0.06 to 4.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Rio Ave and 2.33 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

Rio Ave 0-3 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 19%, draw 25%, Sporting CP 56%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
18 Jan 2025
18:30 Santa Clara vs Estoril Analysis →
23:30 Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca Analysis →