Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vitoria Guimaraes v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
2-2
HT 1-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
1-3
HT 1-3
Arouca
POR
Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Vitoria Guimaraes and Arouca shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 52% of the ball to Arouca's 48%, shots finished 17-19, expected goals 1.47 to 1.54.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.50 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 48%, draw 25%, Arouca 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.