Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.71
2-3 Goals
35%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.03
6+ Goals
10%
19.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.71 — our 33% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.05
X/1
14%
4.02
X/2
15%
9.85
X/X
12%
4.55
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
8%
8.58
2/X
6%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+8.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.4pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -9%
1.58/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.30
+7% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
313 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
24.0 Crosses 15.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Arouca
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.42 xG 1.19
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
313 Passes 357
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 4
12.08.2024 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
18.05.2024 Arouca Arouca 1-3 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
15.01.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POR
11.03.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
18.09.2022 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.02.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 1-3 Arouca Arouca POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-2
AWAY Arouca
1.47 xG 1.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 5
349 Passes 315
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes and Arouca shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 52% of the ball to Arouca's 48%, shots finished 17-19, expected goals 1.47 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.50 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 48%, draw 25%, Arouca 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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