Rio Ave 3-3 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Feb 2024

Rio Ave
3-3 HT 2-2
Sporting CP
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
9.57
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
60%
1.26
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.99
6+ Goals
13%
9.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
20.7
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
6%
28.0
X/1
6%
24.45
X/2
16%
3.28
X/X
8%
7.95
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
35%
1.42
2/X
8%
27.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
8%
+10.4pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.3pp
60%
Away Win
75%
-15.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.2pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rio Ave v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 79%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
0.86/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/0.76
+9% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -18%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
240 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 83%
10.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.7
13.0 Crosses 23.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.38 xG 1.58
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
292 Passes 477
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.09.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 2-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
07.02.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
07.12.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP PRLK
13.08.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
05.05.2021 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
15.01.2021 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-1 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR

Rio Ave 3-3 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
3-3
AWAY Sporting CP
2.13 xG 0.97
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
261 Passes 358
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave and Sporting CP shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sporting CP at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rio Ave had 44% of the ball to Sporting CP's 56%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 2.13 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Rio Ave and 1.83 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

Rio Ave 3-3 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 18%, draw 22%, Sporting CP 60%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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