Vizela 3-3 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 25 Feb 2024

Vizela
3-3 HT 2-0
Estoril
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Vizela vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
13.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 28% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.34
1/2
14%
31.0
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
12%
5.15
X/2
11%
6.0
X/X
14%
4.63
2/1
11%
27.0
2/2
12%
4.14
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+3.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.1pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vizela v Estoril — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -15%
1.64/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.34
-15% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
284 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 80%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
23.6 Crosses 23.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Vizela vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Estoril
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.19 xG 0.85
46% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
309 Passes 386
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Estoril Estoril 2-2 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR
04.03.2023 Estoril Estoril 0-3 HT 0-2 Vizela Vizela POR
12.09.2022 Vizela Vizela 0-1 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR
02.04.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-2 HT 1-1 Vizela Vizela POR
06.11.2021 Vizela Vizela 1-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
03.04.2021 Vizela Vizela 1-1 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR2

Vizela 3-3 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
3-3
AWAY Estoril
1.98 xG 1.11
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
219 Passes 318
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vizela and Estoril shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Vizela had 43% of the ball to Estoril's 57%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.98 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vizela had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vizela and 1.00 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Estoril?

Vizela 3-3 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Vizela 37%, draw 26%, Estoril 37%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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