Adelaide United 1-1 Auckland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 3 Apr 2026

📅03/04/2026 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.47
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.57
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.73
6+ Goals
11%
7.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.63
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
23.5
1/X
6%
12.25
X/1
15%
6.1
X/2
10%
5.85
X/X
7%
5.49
2/1
5%
24.35
2/2
21%
3.39
2/X
8%
12.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.5 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Adelaide United win — 40%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+3.4pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.8pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Auckland EU Bookmakers 42%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.68/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.29
+40% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 81%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
18.6 Crosses 19.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Auckland
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
2.44 xG 1.82
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 3
361 Passes 263
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 25
25 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2025 Auckland Auckland 2-1 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
01.03.2025 Auckland Auckland 4-4 HT 2-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
22.01.2025 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-2 HT 0-0 Auckland Auckland AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
1-1
AWAY Auckland
1.86 xG 1.31
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
279 Passes 275
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 8
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Auckland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United and Auckland shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 22% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Adelaide United had 49% of the ball to Auckland's 51%, shots finished 18-18, expected goals 1.86 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Auckland led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Adelaide United and 2.67 for Auckland.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Auckland?

Adelaide United 1-1 Auckland in the Australia - A-League on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Auckland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 40%, draw 22%, Auckland 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →