MVV Maastricht 1-3 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 Apr 2026

📅03/04/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
56%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.43
Over 2.5
64%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.75
2-3 Goals
36%
1.89
4-5 Goals
33%
2.61
6+ Goals
13%
6.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.23
1/2
7%
19.25
1/X
4%
15.65
X/1
8%
10.15
X/2
13%
4.33
X/X
8%
6.49
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
36%
2.0
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+5.2pp
17%
Draw
21%
-3.9pp
56%
Away Win
58%
-1.2pp
36%
Under 2.5
38%
-1.5pp
64%
Over 2.5
62%
+1.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.8pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 62%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.35/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.57
-14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
297 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 82%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
16.9 Crosses 28.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
0W-3D-3L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.67 xG 2.05
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
291 Passes 448
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2025 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
15.03.2019 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-4 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
07.12.2018 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
16.03.2018 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
03.11.2017 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
05.05.2017 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-3
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.11 xG 2.04
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 12
7 Corners 8
313 Passes 384
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 26
28 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk got the better of MVV Maastricht 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had RKC Waalwijk as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 45% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 55%, shots finished 15-23, expected goals 1.11 to 2.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RKC Waalwijk led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.67 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs RKC Waalwijk?

MVV Maastricht 1-3 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated an RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 26%, draw 17%, RKC Waalwijk 56%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RKC Waalwijk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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