RKC Waalwijk 1-0 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 25 Nov 2025

RKC Waalwijk
1-0 HT 1-0
MVV Maastricht
📅25/11/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

RKC Waalwijk vs MVV Maastricht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.32
Draw
17%
4.95
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.89
Over 2.5
64%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.68
No
40%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.2
2-3 Goals
34%
2.09
4-5 Goals
32%
2.44
6+ Goals
14%
4.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.53
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
19.25
X/1
22%
4.1
X/2
5%
17.5
X/X
7%
8.99
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.0
2/2
6%
13.25
2/X
5%
21.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.0 — our 8% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
71%
-4.3pp
17%
Draw
17%
+0.1pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+4.3pp
36%
Under 2.5
31%
+5.3pp
64%
Over 2.5
69%
-5.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
+4.8pp
40%
BTTS No
44%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v MVV Maastricht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 15%
-12% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.41/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.03
-29% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
19.4 Crosses 12.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

RKC Waalwijk vs MVV Maastricht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
3W-3D-0L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
425 Passes 222
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
15.03.2019 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-4 HT 0-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
07.12.2018 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
16.03.2018 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
03.11.2017 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
05.05.2017 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
02.12.2016 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2

RKC Waalwijk 1-0 MVV Maastricht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1-0
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.05 xG 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
470 Passes 360
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
34 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk edged past MVV Maastricht 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had RKC Waalwijk as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 55% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 45%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.05 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold RKC Waalwijk's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RKC Waalwijk had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 0.67 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs MVV Maastricht?

RKC Waalwijk 1-0 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 25/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 67%, draw 17%, MVV Maastricht 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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