Vitesse 3-1 PSV II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 25 Nov 2025

📅25/11/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
38%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.98
Over 2.5
65%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%
1.35
No
33%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.12
2-3 Goals
37%
2.22
4-5 Goals
28%
2.36
6+ Goals
16%
4.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.57
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
10%
5.39
X/2
7%
7.9
X/X
9%
7.15
2/1
7%
18.55
2/2
20%
4.58
2/X
7%
13.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.7pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.6pp
38%
Away Win
30%
+8.2pp
35%
Under 2.5
30%
+4.8pp
65%
Over 2.5
70%
-4.8pp
67%
BTTS Yes
70%
-3.5pp
33%
BTTS No
30%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitesse EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV II EU Bookmakers 33%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +24%
1.57/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.75
-30% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
390 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
24.1 Crosses 11.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitesse
0W-0D-2L
AWAY PSV II
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.50
1.82 xG 2.23
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 2
446 Passes 274
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.12.2024 PSV II PSV II 6-4 HT 3-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL2
25.10.2024 Vitesse Vitesse 1-3 HT 1-2 PSV II PSV II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitesse
3-1
AWAY PSV II
3.47 xG 0.61
41% Ball Possession 59%
20 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
253 Passes 393
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
34 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitesse vs PSV II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitesse saw off PSV II 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (41% / 21% / 38%) promised a tight game; Vitesse found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (67%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vitesse had 41% of the ball to PSV II's 59%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 3.47 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, PSV II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Vitesse and 4.50 for PSV II.

What was the final score of Vitesse vs PSV II?

Vitesse 3-1 PSV II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 25/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitesse vs PSV II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitesse win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vitesse 41%, draw 21%, PSV II 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitesse), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitesse) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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