PSV II 6-4 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 20 Dec 2024

📅20/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.15
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.55
6+ Goals
15%
6.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.98
1/2
5%
22.55
1/X
9%
12.6
X/1
9%
6.69
X/2
15%
5.48
X/X
10%
5.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
27.0
2/2
22%
3.02
2/X
6%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
42%
Away Win
42%
-0.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.8pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 46%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+2% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.3 Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Vitesse
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 0.79
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 10
277 Passes 434
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 27
3 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 4
25.10.2024 Vitesse Vitesse 1-3 HT 1-2 PSV II PSV II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
6-4
AWAY Vitesse
3.40 xG 2.85
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 19
10 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 12
272 Passes 459
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 40
9 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH PSV II vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV II got the better of Vitesse 6-4. Half-time: 3-1. 10 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Vitesse at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, PSV II had 39% of the ball to Vitesse's 61%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 3.40 to 2.85.

What was the final score of PSV II vs Vitesse?

PSV II 6-4 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitesse win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split PSV II 33%, draw 25%, Vitesse 42%. The final score 6-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Vitesse) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitesse) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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