Utrecht II 3-1 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 20 Dec 2024

📅20/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.53
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
44%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.91
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
27.5
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
13%
5.96
X/2
14%
5.52
X/X
9%
4.81
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
24%
3.5
2/X
6%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 7% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-2.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
44%
Away Win
38%
+6.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.5pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 42%
-12% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.20/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.47
-35% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
321 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 74%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
14.0 Crosses 18.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.87 xG 0.98
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
320 Passes 348
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.08.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 1-1 HT 1-1 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
08.03.2024 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
06.10.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 4-0 HT 2-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
24.02.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
09.09.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 2-0 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
07.02.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 3-2 HT 1-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
3-1
AWAY Helmond Sport
2.64 xG 1.24
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
290 Passes 297
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht II beat Helmond Sport 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Helmond Sport at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Utrecht II had 49% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 51%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.64 to 1.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Utrecht II and 1.67 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs Helmond Sport?

Utrecht II 3-1 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 20/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated an Helmond Sport win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 33%, draw 23%, Helmond Sport 44%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Helmond Sport) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Helmond Sport) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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