Police 1-0 Tusker — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 3 Apr 2026

📅03/04/2026 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
35%
2.83
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
Over 2.5
33%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.33
No
60%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
44%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
20%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.5pp
35%
Draw
32%
+3.1pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
39%
+1.2pp
60%
BTTS No
61%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Police EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Tusker EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +18%
0.85/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.84
-12% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
351 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Police
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Tusker
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.11.2025 Tusker Tusker 1-2 HT 0-2 Police Police KEN
08.02.2025 Tusker Tusker 0-0 HT 0-0 Police Police KEN
29.09.2024 Police Police 1-1 HT 1-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
05.03.2022 Tusker Tusker 1-1 HT 1-1 Police Police KEN2
03.11.2021 Police Police 1-2 HT 1-2 Tusker Tusker KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Police
1-0
AWAY Tusker
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Police vs Tusker
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Police edged past Tusker 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 35% / 30%) promised a tight game; Police found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Police had 48% of the ball to Tusker's 52%, shots finished 10-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Police and 1.00 for Tusker.

What was the final score of Police vs Tusker?

Police 1-0 Tusker in the Kenya - Premier League on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Police vs Tusker?

Before kick-off our model rated a Police win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Police 36%, draw 35%, Tusker 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Police), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Police) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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