Police vs Tusker Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Police v Tusker — Team-Based Signals
Police vs Tusker Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Police
KEN2
1-2
HT 1-2
Tusker
KEN2
Police 1-0 Tusker — Actual Match Statistics
Police edged past Tusker 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (36% / 35% / 30%) promised a tight game; Police found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Police had 48% of the ball to Tusker's 52%, shots finished 10-7.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Police and 1.00 for Tusker.
What was the final score of Police vs Tusker?
Police 1-0 Tusker in the Kenya - Premier League on 03/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Police vs Tusker?
Before kick-off our model rated a Police win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Police 36%, draw 35%, Tusker 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Police), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.