AGF Aarhus 1-3 FC Nordsjaelland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.71
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
52%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.79
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.88
1/2
7%
21.85
1/X EV+ ✗
8%
17.6
X/1
9%
11.3
X/2
23%
3.68
X/X
10%
5.91
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
1.92
2/X
5%
16.9
Value flag · 1/X at 17.6 — our 8% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+6.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
52%
Away Win
61%
-9.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 66%
-11% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.24/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.20
-25% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
299 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 463 · 83%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.7
21.0 Crosses 25.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.00 xG 1.41
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
297 Passes 449
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.04.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 7-2 HT 3-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
11.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAK
29.03.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-3 HT 1-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
26.11.2023 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 0-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
31.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-3 HT 1-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
14.05.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-3
AWAY FC Nordsjaelland
0.93 xG 1.47
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 9
12 Corners 4
325 Passes 395
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 19
41 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Nordsjaelland saw off AGF Aarhus 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Nordsjaelland as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 48% of the ball to FC Nordsjaelland's 52%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 0.93 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AGF Aarhus and 2.17 for FC Nordsjaelland.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland?

AGF Aarhus 1-3 FC Nordsjaelland in the Denmark - Süperlig on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Nordsjaelland win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 24%, draw 23%, FC Nordsjaelland 52%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) ✗ Under 2.5
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