Burgos vs Elche Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Burgos v Elche — Team-Based Signals
Burgos vs Elche Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
4-0
HT 2-0
Elche
İS2
0-0
HT 0-0
Elche
İS2
Burgos 0-1 Elche — Actual Match Statistics
Elche nicked a narrow win over Burgos 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day Elche made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (66%) came in.
On the day, Burgos had 43% of the ball to Elche's 57%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.69 to 0.77.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Elche led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Burgos and 0.75 for Elche.
What was the final score of Burgos vs Elche?
Burgos 0-1 Elche in the Spain - 2nd Division on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Burgos vs Elche?
Before kick-off our model rated an Elche win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Burgos 37%, draw 25%, Elche 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elche), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.