Malaga vs Granada Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Malaga v Granada — Team-Based Signals
Malaga vs Granada Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Malaga
İS2
1-1
HT 1-0
Granada
İS2
1-1
HT 1-0
Malaga
HAZ
1-2
HT 0-2
Granada
İSPK
1-0
HT 1-0
Malaga
İS2
Malaga 1-0 Granada — Actual Match Statistics
Malaga edged past Granada 1-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 30% / 39% — and on the day Malaga made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
On the day, Malaga had 52% of the ball to Granada's 48%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 2.25 to 0.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Malaga's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Granada led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Malaga and 1.33 for Granada.
What was the final score of Malaga vs Granada?
Malaga 1-0 Granada in the Spain - 2nd Division on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Malaga vs Granada?
Before kick-off our model rated an Granada win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Malaga 31%, draw 30%, Granada 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Granada) went the other way.