Ceuta 1-0 Merida AD — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 3 May 2025

Ceuta
1-0 HT 1-0
Merida AD
📅03/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division B – 2024/2025

Ceuta vs Merida AD Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.11
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+5.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceuta v Merida AD — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Merida AD EU Bookmakers 25%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.81/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.54
+13% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Ceuta vs Merida AD Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceuta
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Merida AD
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.11.2024 Merida AD Merida AD 1-1 HT 1-0 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
17.12.2023 Ceuta Ceuta 1-1 HT 1-1 Merida AD Merida AD İS3
02.04.2023 Ceuta Ceuta 1-0 HT 1-0 Merida AD Merida AD İS3
20.11.2022 Merida AD Merida AD 2-0 HT 0-0 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
30.01.2022 Ceuta Ceuta 0-1 HT 0-0 Merida AD Merida AD İS4
12.09.2021 Merida AD Merida AD 1-1 HT 0-0 Ceuta Ceuta İS4

Ceuta 1-0 Merida AD — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceuta
1-0
AWAY Merida AD
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Merida AD
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta edged past Merida AD 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ceuta as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Ceuta had 52% of the ball to Merida AD's 48%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Merida AD led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ceuta and 1.00 for Merida AD.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Merida AD?

Ceuta 1-0 Merida AD in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Merida AD?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceuta win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 47%, draw 25%, Merida AD 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceuta) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceuta) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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