Atlanta United 1-1 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 May 2025

Atlanta United
1-1 HT 1-0
Nashville SC
📅03/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
USA - Major League – 2025

Atlanta United vs Nashville SC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.83
6+ Goals
10%
8.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 27% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.94
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
5%
12.2
X/1
8%
5.36
X/2
11%
7.19
X/X
15%
5.33
2/1
10%
22.9
2/2
16%
4.66
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-12.2pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlanta United v Nashville SC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.55/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.14
+14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +35%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
390 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 82%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.3 Crosses 17.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Atlanta United vs Nashville SC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Nashville SC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.54 xG 1.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
422 Passes 304
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.09.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-2 HT 0-1 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
18.05.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
27.08.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-0 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
29.04.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 3-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
22.05.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-2 HT 2-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
12.05.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 3-2 HT 0-2 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABDK

Atlanta United 1-1 Nashville SC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
1-1
AWAY Nashville SC
1.05 xG 1.19
37% Ball Possession 63%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
295 Passes 554
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United and Nashville SC shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atlanta United had 37% of the ball to Nashville SC's 63%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 1.05 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nashville SC led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atlanta United and 1.83 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs Nashville SC?

Atlanta United 1-1 Nashville SC in the USA - Major League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 40%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atlanta United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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