CA Sarmiento 1-1 San Lorenzo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.99
Draw
33%
2.7
Away
41%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.38
Over 2.5
35%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
1.89
2-3 Goals
45%
1.82
4-5 Goals
12%
6.56
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.17
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
10%
15.0
X/1
8%
6.15
X/2
9%
5.1
X/X
20%
3.17
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
23%
3.86
2/X
4%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
30%
-3.6pp
33%
Draw
34%
-0.6pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+4.2pp
65%
Under 2.5
69%
-3.9pp
35%
Over 2.5
31%
+3.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.5pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.15/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/0.75
+2% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +45%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.0 Crosses 20.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Sarmiento
2W-1D-3L
AWAY San Lorenzo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.95 xG 1.27
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
208 Passes 317
67% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.06.2024 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-1 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
16.03.2024 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-0 HT 1-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
31.10.2023 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
21.02.2023 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-1 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
18.10.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 2-4 HT 1-3 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
09.04.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 2-1 HT 1-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Sarmiento
1-1
AWAY San Lorenzo
0.72 xG 0.69
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
181 Passes 408
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 18
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CA Sarmiento vs San Lorenzo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Sarmiento and San Lorenzo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (26% / 33% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (65%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, CA Sarmiento had 35% of the ball to San Lorenzo's 65%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.72 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, San Lorenzo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for CA Sarmiento and 1.17 for San Lorenzo.

What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs San Lorenzo?

CA Sarmiento 1-1 San Lorenzo in the Argentina - Premier League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs San Lorenzo?

Before kick-off our model rated an San Lorenzo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 26%, draw 33%, San Lorenzo 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (San Lorenzo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Lorenzo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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