Avondale Heights 4-0 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
68%
-8.0pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.3pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+3.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
+0.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avondale Heights EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
2.89/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.03
+9% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +150%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.5 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avondale Heights
3W-1D-2L
AWAY South Melbourne
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.66 xG 1.26
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
298 Passes 105
70% Pass Accuracy 49%
27 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 1-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
04.05.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-3 HT 0-1 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
10.09.2023 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 4-0 HT 2-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
12.08.2023 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 2-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
07.05.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-0 HT 1-0 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights AVNPL
21.08.2022 Avondale Heights Avondale Heights 0-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Avondale Heights vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avondale Heights swept aside South Melbourne 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Avondale Heights as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avondale Heights had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Avondale Heights and 1.17 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Avondale Heights vs South Melbourne?

Avondale Heights 4-0 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avondale Heights vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avondale Heights win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Avondale Heights 60%, draw 23%, South Melbourne 16%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avondale Heights), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avondale Heights) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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