UTC Cajamarca 2-1 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-1.8pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.0pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-2.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.8pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.38/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.22
+20% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +10%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
254 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 75%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
18.4 Crosses 16.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UTC Cajamarca
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.27 xG 0.86
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 12
216 Passes 264
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.07.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
26.01.2024 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
03.09.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
16.04.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 HT 1-1 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UTC Cajamarca
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
2.05 xG 0.53
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
359 Passes 179
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UTC Cajamarca squeezed past Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 32% / 35%) promised a tight game; UTC Cajamarca found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UTC Cajamarca had 62% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 38%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.05 to 0.53 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold UTC Cajamarca's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 0.75 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

UTC Cajamarca 2-1 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UTC Cajamarca vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split UTC Cajamarca 32%, draw 32%, Deportivo Garcilaso 35%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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