Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 UTC Cajamarca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-10.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.2pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 25%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.44/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.35
-12% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -1%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 196 · 68%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
23.5 Crosses 17.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
0W-2D-1L
AWAY UTC Cajamarca
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.75 xG 1.20
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 5
251 Passes 234
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.01.2024 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
03.09.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
16.04.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 HT 1-1 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
1-0
AWAY UTC Cajamarca
1.19 xG 1.49
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
15 Corners 5
300 Passes 162
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Box Touches 17
31 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Garcilaso nicked a narrow win over UTC Cajamarca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Deportivo Garcilaso as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 62% of the ball to UTC Cajamarca's 38%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.19 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, UTC Cajamarca led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.00 for UTC Cajamarca.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?

Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 UTC Cajamarca in the Peru - Premier League on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 43%, draw 27%, UTC Cajamarca 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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