Cesar Vallejo 2-3 Alianza Lima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
44%
Away Win
44%
+0.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.0pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesar Vallejo EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 48%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +26%
0.96/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.79
-6% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +48%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
14.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
11.6 Crosses 17.7
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cesar Vallejo
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Alianza Lima
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.74 xG 1.89
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
312 Passes 255
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
12 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.01.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-1 HT 1-1 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
30.07.2023 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 1-1 HT 1-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
12.05.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 0-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
05.10.2022 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 3-2 HT 1-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
15.05.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 1-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
29.08.2021 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesar Vallejo
2-3
AWAY Alianza Lima
0.16 xG 2.07
51% Ball Possession 49%
5 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
297 Passes 270
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
5 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cesar Vallejo vs Alianza Lima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima squeezed past Cesar Vallejo 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cesar Vallejo had 51% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 49%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.16 to 2.07 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Alianza Lima's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cesar Vallejo and 1.67 for Alianza Lima.

What was the final score of Cesar Vallejo vs Alianza Lima?

Cesar Vallejo 2-3 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesar Vallejo vs Alianza Lima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cesar Vallejo 27%, draw 28%, Alianza Lima 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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