UD Ourense 1-1 Atletico Astorga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 3 May 2026

UD Ourense
1-1 HT 0-0
Atletico Astorga
📅03/05/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Spain - 2nd Division RFEF – 2025/2026

UD Ourense vs Atletico Astorga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-4.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

UD Ourense v Atletico Astorga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Ourense EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Astorga EU Bookmakers 27%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +40% / +40%
0.52/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.32
-64% / +89% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

UD Ourense vs Atletico Astorga Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Ourense
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Atletico Astorga
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
67% Ball Possession 33%
7 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
6 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
08.11.2025 Atletico Astorga Atletico Astorga 1-1 HT 1-0 UD Ourense UD Ourense İS4
POST-MATCH UD Ourense vs Atletico Astorga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Ourense and Atletico Astorga couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was UD Ourense at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

What was the final score of UD Ourense vs Atletico Astorga?

UD Ourense 1-1 Atletico Astorga in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 03/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Ourense vs Atletico Astorga?

Before kick-off our model rated a UD Ourense win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split UD Ourense 47%, draw 26%, Atletico Astorga 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (UD Ourense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (UD Ourense) ✓ Under 2.5
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