Al Nejmeh 4-1 Al Ahed — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lebanon - Premier League, 3 Jul 2025

📅03/07/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.2pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nejmeh EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahed EU Bookmakers 43%
-51% / -51% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
0.50/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.00
-39% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nejmeh
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Al Ahed
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
18.05.2025 Al Nejmeh Al Nejmeh 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Ahed Al Ahed LUBN
19.04.2025 Al Ahed Al Ahed 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Nejmeh Al Nejmeh LUBN
26.01.2025 Al Nejmeh Al Nejmeh 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Ahed Al Ahed LUBN
POST-MATCH Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nejmeh ran out comfortable winners over Al Ahed 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ahed at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Ahed led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Al Nejmeh and 1.33 for Al Ahed.

What was the final score of Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed?

Al Nejmeh 4-1 Al Ahed in the Lebanon - Premier League on 03/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahed win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Al Nejmeh 33%, draw 24%, Al Ahed 43%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Ahed) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahed) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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