Smiltene 1-2 JDFS Alberts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.91
Draw
15%
5.28
Away
62%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
29%
2.98
Over 2.5
71%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
31%
X/X
3%
2/1
8%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
14%
+9.8pp
15%
Draw
16%
-0.9pp
62%
Away Win
70%
-8.8pp
29%
Under 2.5
30%
-0.6pp
71%
Over 2.5
70%
+0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY JDFS Alberts EU Bookmakers 75%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.77/2.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.63/0.87
-22% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
304 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
0W-0D-2L
AWAY JDFS Alberts
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
07.04.2024 JDFS Alberts JDFS Alberts 3-0 HT 2-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
05.08.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 1-4 HT 1-2 JDFS Alberts JDFS Alberts LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs JDFS Alberts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

JDFS Alberts squeezed past Smiltene 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had JDFS Alberts as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (71%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, JDFS Alberts led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Smiltene and 3.50 for JDFS Alberts.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs JDFS Alberts?

Smiltene 1-2 JDFS Alberts in the Latvia - 1st Division on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs JDFS Alberts?

Before kick-off our model rated an JDFS Alberts win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 24%, draw 15%, JDFS Alberts 62%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (JDFS Alberts), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (JDFS Alberts) ✓ Over 2.5
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