Vitoria 1-0 Ceara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.49
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.46
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
16%
4.79
X/2
7%
6.27
X/X
13%
3.58
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
17%
5.21
2/X
9%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.1pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.9pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceara EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.48/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.26
-11% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +47%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
25.8 Crosses 17.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Ceara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.89 xG 0.94
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
221 Passes 380
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2025 Ceara Ceara 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
14.08.2023 Vitoria Vitoria 1-0 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
11.05.2023 Ceara Ceara 0-2 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
09.03.2023 Vitoria Vitoria 2-0 HT 1-0 Ceara Ceara BRCDN
24.04.2021 Ceara Ceara 2-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRCDN
06.03.2021 Ceara Ceara 3-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRCDN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
1-0
AWAY Ceara
2.12 xG 0.52
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
219 Passes 409
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Ceara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria nicked a narrow win over Ceara 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Vitoria found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vitoria had 37% of the ball to Ceara's 63%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 2.12 to 0.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vitoria's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vitoria and 1.00 for Ceara.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Ceara?

Vitoria 1-0 Ceara in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Ceara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 38%, draw 30%, Ceara 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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