Fortaleza 0-2 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.48
Over 2.5
43%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
5.35
6+ Goals
9%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.93
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.2
X/1
16%
5.24
X/2
12%
5.68
X/X
11%
3.59
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
13%
4.45
2/X
8%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.9pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
64%
-7.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
36%
+7.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 36%
-6% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +10%
1.23/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.11
-13% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 81%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.4 Crosses 17.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.80 xG 1.19
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
214 Passes 481
73% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.05.2025 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
28.07.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
14.04.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-2 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
21.09.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-2 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
12.05.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
28.08.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
0-2
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.00 xG 1.46
75% Ball Possession 25%
24 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
556 Passes 141
88% Pass Accuracy 65%
37 Box Touches 15
39 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo saw off Fortaleza 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Sao Paulo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fortaleza had 75% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 25%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 1.00 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fortaleza and 0.33 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Sao Paulo?

Fortaleza 0-2 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 39%, draw 27%, Sao Paulo 34%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fortaleza) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
3 Oct 2025
01:00 Vitoria vs Ceara Analysis →
02:30 Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Analysis →