Sao Paulo 1-2 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Apr 2024

Sao Paulo
1-2 HT 0-0
Fortaleza
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Sao Paulo vs Fortaleza Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.08
6+ Goals
8%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.61
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.45
X/1
12%
3.92
X/2
10%
7.91
X/X
16%
3.95
2/1
10%
30.0
2/2
12%
6.9
2/X
9%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
50%
-6.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
+0.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
-0.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.1pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sao Paulo v Fortaleza — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.30/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.39
-17% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +24%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
379 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 74%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
22.9 Crosses 16.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6

Sao Paulo vs Fortaleza Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Fortaleza
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 0.95
61% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
434 Passes 237
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.09.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-2 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
12.05.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
28.08.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
09.05.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
11.11.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
16.09.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK

Sao Paulo 1-2 Fortaleza — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-2
AWAY Fortaleza
0.52 xG 0.36
72% Ball Possession 28%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 4
606 Passes 184
88% Pass Accuracy 68%
32 Box Touches 7
34 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza squeezed past Sao Paulo 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 72% of the ball to Fortaleza's 28%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 0.52 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.33 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Fortaleza?

Sao Paulo 1-2 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 44%, draw 29%, Fortaleza 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
14 Apr 2024
00:30 Internacional vs Bahia Analysis →
00:30 Criciuma vs Juventude Analysis →
03:00 Fluminense vs Bragantino Analysis →
22:00 Atletico Paranaense vs Cuiaba Analysis →
22:00 Vasco da Gama vs Gremio Analysis →
22:00 Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo Analysis →