Fluminense 2-2 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.69
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.35
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.38
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
19%
3.88
X/2
9%
8.79
X/X
15%
4.33
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
13%
7.41
2/X
7%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-9.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.0pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -20%
1.63/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.58
+5% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
22.9 Crosses 18.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Bragantino
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.48 xG 1.07
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
377 Passes 311
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2023 Bragantino 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.06.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 2-0 Bragantino BR1
13.11.2022 Bragantino 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
24.07.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
26.09.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 2-0 Bragantino BR1
14.06.2021 Bragantino 2-2 HT 2-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
2-2
AWAY Bragantino
1.76 xG 1.16
69% Ball Possession 31%
26 Total Shots 16
11 Shots on Target 8
13 Corners 6
452 Passes 157
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
34 Box Touches 23
31 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense and Bragantino couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fluminense at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fluminense had 69% of the ball to Bragantino's 31%, shots finished 26-16, expected goals 1.76 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fluminense and 1.00 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Bragantino?

Fluminense 2-2 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 43%, draw 28%, Bragantino 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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