Atletico Goianiense 1-2 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.04
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
45%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
17.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 30% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.05
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
10%
15.55
X/1
11%
8.62
X/2
8%
3.96
X/X
13%
4.48
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.39
2/X
6%
14.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+4.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
45%
Away Win
54%
-8.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 57%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.23/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.03
+13% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -13%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 82%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
20.6 Crosses 18.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Flamengo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.92 xG 1.63
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
316 Passes 438
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.07.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 4-1 HT 4-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
10.04.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
10.12.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
06.11.2021 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
15.11.2020 Flamengo Flamengo 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
13.08.2020 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 3-0 HT 2-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
1-2
AWAY Flamengo
1.62 xG 1.21
32% Ball Possession 68%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
150 Passes 405
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo edged past Atletico Goianiense 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 32% of the ball to Flamengo's 68%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.62 to 1.21 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atletico Goianiense.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.33 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?

Atletico Goianiense 1-2 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 26%, draw 29%, Flamengo 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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