Fortaleza 1-0 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
34%
2.83
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.45
Over 2.5
33%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2.09
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
15%
6.11
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.31
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
17%
4.54
X/2
9%
6.54
X/X
21%
3.33
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
10%
5.57
2/X
7%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.3pp
34%
Draw
32%
+2.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
67%
Under 2.5
65%
+1.9pp
33%
Over 2.5
35%
-1.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.1pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 30%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.53/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.20
-16% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.0 Crosses 16.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.73 xG 0.92
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
229 Passes 459
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-2 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
21.09.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-2 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
12.05.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
28.08.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
09.05.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
11.11.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-0
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.33 xG 0.61
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 10
208 Passes 417
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza nicked a narrow win over Sao Paulo 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 34% / 28%) promised a tight game; Fortaleza found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fortaleza had 37% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 63%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.33 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fortaleza and 0.67 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Sao Paulo?

Fortaleza 1-0 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 38%, draw 34%, Sao Paulo 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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