Bahia 1-1 Internacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Jul 2024

Bahia
1-1 HT 1-0
Internacional
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Internacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.64
Over 2.5
35%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.66
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.41
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 36% vs market 31.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.69
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
13%
4.22
X/2
10%
7.64
X/X
18%
4.09
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
10%
6.22
2/X
5%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-7.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.0pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.4pp
65%
Under 2.5
57%
+7.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
43%
-7.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.2pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Internacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Internacional EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.52/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.40
+0% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 78%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
23.4 Crosses 15.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

Bahia vs Internacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Internacional
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.20 xG 1.56
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
348 Passes 334
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Internacional Internacional 2-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
19.10.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Internacional Internacional BR1
28.05.2023 Internacional Internacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
26.09.2021 Internacional Internacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
14.06.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1
27.12.2020 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional BR1

Bahia 1-1 Internacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-1
AWAY Internacional
0.86 xG 1.52
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
415 Passes 400
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Internacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia and Internacional couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (65%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Bahia had 51% of the ball to Internacional's 49%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.86 to 1.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Internacional led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bahia and 1.50 for Internacional.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Internacional?

Bahia 1-1 Internacional in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Internacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bahia 41%, draw 31%, Internacional 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bahia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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