Bragantino 0-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.34
6+ Goals
7%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 35% vs market 31.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.3
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.15
X/1
13%
4.85
X/2
10%
6.27
X/X
8%
3.97
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
16%
4.75
2/X
7%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.6pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.6pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bragantino EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -10%
1.18/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.46
+13% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
261 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
18.5 Crosses 16.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bragantino
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fluminense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.93 xG 1.41
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
286 Passes 396
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
23.10.2023 Bragantino 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.06.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 2-0 Bragantino BR1
13.11.2022 Bragantino 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
24.07.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
26.09.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 2-0 Bragantino BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bragantino
0-1
AWAY Fluminense
0.42 xG 0.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
373 Passes 246
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bragantino vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense squeezed past Bragantino 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Bragantino at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Bragantino had 59% of the ball to Fluminense's 41%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.42 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bragantino and 1.50 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Bragantino vs Fluminense?

Bragantino 0-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bragantino vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bragantino win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bragantino 42%, draw 26%, Fluminense 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bragantino) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bragantino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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