Botafogo 0-3 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.53
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
45%
+2.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.9pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 30%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +12%
1.34/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.35
+20% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
318 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
19.9 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.35
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
286 Passes 302
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-2 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
04.12.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
07.08.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
13.10.2021 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR2
10.07.2021 Botafogo Botafogo 3-3 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
01.11.2019 Botafogo Botafogo 0-2 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
0-3
AWAY Cruzeiro
2.19 xG 0.63
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 1
431 Passes 295
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
32 Box Touches 25
37 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro cruised past Botafogo 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Botafogo had 59% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 41%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 2.19 to 0.63 — on chances, Botafogo could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Botafogo and 1.33 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?

Botafogo 0-3 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 47%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 25%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Botafogo), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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