Palmeiras 0-2 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Jul 2024

Palmeiras
0-2 HT 0-0
Vitoria
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Palmeiras vs Vitoria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.47
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.32
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 27% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.25
X/1
16%
3.5
X/2
7%
12.7
X/X
14%
5.59
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
8%
10.7
2/X
5%
19.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
64%
-9.4pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.8pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.4pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palmeiras v Vitoria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 18%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.96/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.15
+9% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 77%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
25.6 Crosses 19.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2

Palmeiras vs Vitoria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vitoria
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.45 xG 1.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
402 Passes 283
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.04.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
02.12.2018 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
19.08.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 0-3 HT 0-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
09.11.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 3-1 HT 3-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
16.07.2017 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-2 HT 2-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.12.2016 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1

Palmeiras 0-2 Vitoria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
0-2
AWAY Vitoria
0.79 xG 0.63
71% Ball Possession 29%
21 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 2
539 Passes 192
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 11
50 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria saw off Palmeiras 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 71% of the ball to Vitoria's 29%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 0.79 to 0.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Palmeiras and 1.33 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Vitoria?

Palmeiras 0-2 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 54%, draw 26%, Vitoria 19%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Palmeiras) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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