Cruzeiro 3-2 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.05
6+ Goals
9%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.17
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
14%
4.47
X/2
13%
6.41
X/X
18%
3.8
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
10%
5.27
2/X
6%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.7pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.1pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.5pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.9pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.57/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.50
-11% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
24.1 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Botafogo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.22 xG 1.04
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
313 Passes 338
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.12.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
07.08.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
13.10.2021 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR2
10.07.2021 Botafogo Botafogo 3-3 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
01.11.2019 Botafogo Botafogo 0-2 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
14.07.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
3-2
AWAY Botafogo
1.65 xG 2.03
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
334 Passes 252
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
34 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro edged past Botafogo 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 56% of the ball to Botafogo's 44%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.65 to 2.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.50 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?

Cruzeiro 3-2 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 42%, draw 31%, Botafogo 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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