NAC Breda 1-2 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
35%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.75
Over 2.5
54%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.76
No
40%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
26%
3.78
6+ Goals
8%
16.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.8
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
12%
5.56
X/2
11%
5.66
X/X
15%
4.42
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
29.5
2/2
18%
3.91
2/X
7%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
53%
-7.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
47%
+7.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
53%
+7.0pp
40%
BTTS No
47%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 39%
+2% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.56/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.38
+3% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.5 Crosses 15.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Groningen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.28 xG 1.62
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
274 Passes 366
72% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2025 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
09.08.2024 Groningen Groningen 4-1 HT 3-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
07.04.2024 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
06.10.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-2 HT 2-1 Groningen Groningen HOL2
23.02.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-0 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
02.12.2018 Groningen Groningen 5-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-2
AWAY Groningen
0.72 xG 1.46
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 6
422 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen squeezed past NAC Breda 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Groningen made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, NAC Breda had 61% of the ball to Groningen's 39%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.72 to 1.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Groningen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for NAC Breda and 2.17 for Groningen.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Groningen?

NAC Breda 1-2 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 37%, draw 28%, Groningen 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NAC Breda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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