NAC Breda 1-1 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 29 Mar 2025

NAC Breda
1-1 HT 0-0
Groningen
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NAC Breda vs Groningen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.64
Over 2.5
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.6
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.33
6+ Goals
12%
22.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.38
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
16%
5.93
X/2
13%
5.32
X/X
16%
4.08
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.7
2/X
5%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v Groningen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.20/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.34
-3% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
22.4 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5

NAC Breda vs Groningen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Groningen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.30 xG 1.58
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
294 Passes 365
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.08.2024 Groningen Groningen 4-1 HT 3-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
07.04.2024 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
06.10.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-2 HT 2-1 Groningen Groningen HOL2
23.02.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-0 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
02.12.2018 Groningen Groningen 5-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
23.02.2018 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL

NAC Breda 1-1 Groningen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-1
AWAY Groningen
1.74 xG 1.26
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
345 Passes 292
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda and Groningen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 55% of the ball to Groningen's 45%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.74 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Groningen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for NAC Breda and 2.17 for Groningen.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Groningen?

NAC Breda 1-1 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 38%, draw 27%, Groningen 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NAC Breda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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