NEC Nijmegen 3-3 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 29 Mar 2025

NEC Nijmegen
3-3 HT 1-2
AZ Alkmaar
📅29/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
39%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.17
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.57
6+ Goals
12%
14.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.24
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
12%
8.1
X/2
12%
4.62
X/X
15%
4.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.61
2/X
8%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 35.0 — our 8% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.7pp
39%
Away Win
48%
-9.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 52%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
0.91/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.17
-52% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +29%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
19.6 Crosses 17.1
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.54 xG 1.90
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
296 Passes 488
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 43
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.08.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
28.04.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
06.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
21.05.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-3 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
01.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

NEC Nijmegen 3-3 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.30 xG 0.93
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
372 Passes 391
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 31
21 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen and AZ Alkmaar shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 30% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 49% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 51%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.30 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar?

NEC Nijmegen 3-3 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 31%, draw 30%, AZ Alkmaar 39%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
29 Mar 2025
18:30 NAC Breda vs Groningen Analysis →
20:45 Fortuna Sittard vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →
20:45 Willem II vs Almere City Analysis →
23:00 PEC Zwolle vs RKC Waalwijk Analysis →