AZ Alkmaar 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Aug 2024

AZ Alkmaar
1-0 HT 1-0
NEC Nijmegen
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.53
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
28%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.73
No
41%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
30%
2.9
6+ Goals
12%
8.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.86
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
16.2
X/1
17%
3.82
X/2
12%
12.0
X/X
8%
6.34
2/1
7%
20.9
2/2
9%
8.79
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
16.75
Value flag · 2/X at 16.75 — our 11% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
61%
-17.5pp
29%
Draw
21%
+7.3pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+10.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
54%
+5.1pp
41%
BTTS No
46%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar v NEC Nijmegen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
2.08/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.77
+20% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
390 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
18.9 Crosses 14.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.3

AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-1D-2L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.92 xG 0.80
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
494 Passes 323
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
37 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.04.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
06.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
21.05.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-3 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
01.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
06.03.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-3 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 NEC Nijmegen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-0
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.02 xG 0.40
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
429 Passes 308
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
39 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar edged past NEC Nijmegen 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 56% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 44%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.02 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.00 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 44%, draw 29%, NEC Nijmegen 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
17 Aug 2024
17:30 Heerenveen vs Utrecht Analysis →
19:45 Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →
22:00 RKC Waalwijk vs Groningen Analysis →