Twente 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.64
Draw
20%
3.8
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.18
Over 2.5
59%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
9.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.03
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.85
X/1
22%
4.0
X/2
6%
10.4
X/X
10%
5.84
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.3
2/2
10%
7.56
2/X
5%
15.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.3 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
57%
+0.9pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.6pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.6pp
41%
Under 2.5
42%
-1.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
58%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Twente EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +21%
1.82/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.55
-3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +24%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
441 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 72%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
22.0 Crosses 16.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Twente
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.96 xG 1.36
61% Ball Possession 39%
23 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
412 Passes 244
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
44 Box Touches 18
34 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Twente Twente 2-1 HT 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
17.12.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 HT 0-1 Twente Twente HOL
11.06.2023 Twente Twente 1-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
08.06.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
23.04.2023 Twente Twente 3-3 HT 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
10.12.2022 Twente Twente 2-1 HT 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Twente
1-1
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
2.46 xG 0.94
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
463 Passes 305
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
37 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Twente and Sparta Rotterdam shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Twente at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Twente had 59% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 41%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 2.46 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Twente and 1.33 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Twente 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Twente vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Twente win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Twente 58%, draw 21%, Sparta Rotterdam 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Twente) ✗ Over 2.5
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